Market Capitulation Ahead
Don’t let market panic, anxiety and fear get the best of you. One of the toughest challenges investors face is keeping emotions in check during significant market corrections.
Capitulation can be defined as the point in time when market participants finally give up hope on holding a position and throw in the towel. It typically follows a steady decline and culminates in a panic selling event. It looks as though we are entering that phase right now.
The CBOE Volatility Index or “VIX” is the most widely followed barometer of expected near-term stock market volatility. It is also known as the “fear” index. It spiked 26% on Tuesday and is surging higher this morning, pushing into an "extreme fear" level.
After jumping +288 points on Monday on relief about the ceasefire between the United States and China on trade, the DJIA dropped -800 points, or 3.1%, on Tuesday, December 4th and is set to decline another -450 points at the open this morning. The selloff wipes out a big chunk of the +1,800 point rally in the Dow from the November 23rd low, when the Fear & Greed Index reached a “fear crescendo”, falling to level of 8.
Investors are quickly realizing that the US-China trade war is not over. President Trump’s “I am a tariff man” tweet on Monday, December 3rd reignited fears of a potentially deeper and more protracted trade war.
The market is trying to find a bottom as the Fear & Greed Index approaches single digits once again.
When the market experiences a bout of higher volatility, it often creates price disparities that savvy investors can take advantage of, because when volatility rises, the majority of investors panic. And a panicked investor makes poor investment decisions.
So, hopefully you made adjustments to your portfolio during the early part of this correction and can now sit back and view the market landscape opportunistically. Keep a cool head and put your shopping list together now and be ready to buy your favorite stocks, ETFs and closed-end funds (CEFs) should the Fear & Greed Index continue to fall.
Disclosure: George Kiraly Jr., CFP®, MBA is the Founder & Chief Investment Officer of LodeStar Advisory Group, LLC, an independent Registered Investment Adviser located in Short Hills, New Jersey. George Kiraly, LodeStar Advisory Group, and/or its clients may hold positions in the ETFs, mutual funds and/or any investment asset mentioned above. The opinions offered herein are not personalized recommendations to buy, sell or hold securities. The above commentary does not constitute individual investment advice. The strategies discussed are strictly for illustrative and educational purposes and should not be construed as a recommendation to purchase or sell, or an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice regarding the funds or any security in particular.